10.1 Strategic Thinking & Results Focus
Key Takeaways
- The three fundamental components of a strategic thinking mindset are intellectual flexibility, intellectual inclusiveness, and intellectual humility.
- Strategic thinking in action consists of four activities: scanning, questioning, conceptualizing, and testing.
- SMART goals are Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, and Time-bound; 'Attainable' does not mean easy, because research shows difficult goals improve performance more than easy ones.
- Group-centric goals are more effective than ego-centric goals when work is interdependent and collaboration is needed.
- AFH 1 states strategic thinking can be applied at any level, across an entire enterprise or on a specific project — it is not 'above an enlisted member's pay grade.'
Strategic Thinking Is Not Above Your Pay Grade
AFH 1 anticipates the objection and answers it in the first paragraph: "While some enlisted members may think of strategic thinking as 'above their pay grade,' thinking strategically is important when establishing goals, and planning how to achieve them, within any unit or work center. Strategic thinking can be applied at any level, across an entire enterprise or on a specific project."
That sentence is a likely item all by itself, and it also tells you how to answer SJT-style scenarios: a response that defers a planning problem upward purely because of grade is rarely the most effective option.
Organizational management is defined as "the process of organizing, planning, leading, and controlling resources within an entity with the overall aim of achieving established goals."
Strategic thinking itself is "thinking on both a large and small scale, long- and short-term to identify and achieve desired goals." Note that the definition covers both scales and both time horizons — an option restricting it to long-term or enterprise-level thinking is wrong.
What Excellent Strategic Thinkers Do
AFH 1 reports what retired USAF general officers said about the Airmen who most excelled at strategic thinking. Four behaviors:
- Identifying best and worst-case scenarios for how a situation might be resolved
- Considering how other stakeholders would be affected by proposed courses of action
- Viewing issues from the perspective of more senior leadership — "work your boss's problems"
- Identifying a realistic time horizon for achieving goals and building on small successes — "Thought BIG. Started small. Scaled fast."
Both quoted phrases are memorable enough that the exam uses them verbatim.
The Strategic Thinking Mindset — Three Components
| Component | AFH 1's definition | The practical test |
|---|---|---|
| Intellectual Flexibility | A willingness and proclivity to adjust one's understanding, opinions, or approach when conditions change, or new information is presented | "Flexibility is about bending, not breaking" — adapt without abandoning long-term strategy and starting from scratch |
| Intellectual Inclusiveness | Welcoming of information and opinion from a broad range of sources — individuals, groups, disciplines of study | Look beyond your immediate organization; use formal and informal networks, peers from past assignments, contacts in other Services, former instructors or classmates |
| Intellectual Humility | Comfort level with being wrong or having an incomplete understanding, accompanied by the tendency to check oneself, examining issues as if one's understanding is wrong in some way | Assume you may be wrong and go looking for the error |
AFH 1's own worked example for flexibility is worth keeping: a request for critical training is denied for budgetary reasons. Rather than ignoring the need or simply continuing to push the original request, consider other options — send one Airman to the training and have them teach the rest of the unit, or find a nearby unit whose members already have the training.
Strategy, AFH 1 adds, "sets priorities, goals, objectives, and key performance indicators (metrics/measures) that are aligned from the lowest echelon to the highest, and ensures all Airmen are marching down the same Path, toward the same Target." When performance falls short of the target, continuous improvement methods such as Lean, Six Sigma, or Theory of Constraints may be applied — per DoDI 5010.42 and DoDI 5010.43.
Strategic Thinking in Action — Four Activities
| Activity | What it means | AFH 1's examples |
|---|---|---|
| Scanning | Identification of emerging patterns in the environment — taking in, deconstructing, and synthesizing information from different sources with the goal of applying it to the future | Seeking input from an expert panel; analyzing historical data to identify trends |
| Questioning | Asking questions of others and oneself to understand an issue from different perspectives — framing issues broadly, exploring problems rather than aiming to solve them immediately, and considering input from all stakeholders | — |
| Conceptualizing | Identifying possibilities for future direction — a broad range of options (brainstorming), using analytic tools, and rejecting options only after exploration | — |
| Testing | Informed speculation to anticipate the impact of a proposed action on organizational performance | Role play how the course of action would be communicated to stakeholders; pilot test on a small scale to evaluate initial impact and address early problems |
The two clauses most likely to be tested are "exploring problems rather than aiming to solve them immediately" (Questioning) and "rejecting options only after exploration" (Conceptualizing). Both push against the instinct to converge early — the same instinct the Developing Ideas chapter warns about.
Results Focus and SMART Goals
AFH 1 states the premise: "At the individual and team level, optimal performance requires setting goals to stay on track. But not all goals are alike." Goal setting is most likely to improve performance when goals are SMART.
| Letter | Criterion | What AFH 1 requires |
|---|---|---|
| S | Specific | Answers who is involved, what is to be accomplished, where, when, which requirements and constraints exist, and why (purpose) |
| M | Measurable | Establish criteria for measuring progress toward and attainment of each objective, target, or milestone |
| A | Attainable | Ensure applicable resources are available and objectives are possible within acceptable levels of risk; prefer action-oriented statements over passive voice |
| R | Relevant | Link to the mission, vision, and goals; meaningful and relevant to the user. "Good objectives must be obtainable, yet purposeful" |
| T | Time-Bound | Provide a date for completion; targeted dates provide periodic and overall accountability |
The note attached to "Attainable" is the highest-value fact in the section, because it inverts the obvious reading:
The term "Attainable" does not imply that goals should be easy to attain. Research has consistently found that setting difficult or challenging goals improves performance more than setting goals that are easy or only moderately difficult to meet.
An option that glosses "Attainable" as "easily achievable" or "moderately difficult" is wrong on AFH 1's own terms.
Group-Centric Versus Ego-Centric Goals
AFH 1 draws a sharp distinction that shows up in both knowledge items and SJT reasoning:
- "Ego-centric" goals are strictly focused on maximizing individual results and may backfire when collaboration is needed
- "Group-centric" goals focus on how individuals contribute to the group, which matters when work is interdependent
AFH 1's worked example. Managers set numeric goals for help desk technicians to resolve a certain number of tickets each month.
| Goal type | Effect |
|---|---|
| Ego-centric — each individual employee must resolve a set number of tickets | Disincentivizes support to other team members, such as training and coaching new teammates |
| Group-centric — the entire work unit must resolve a set number of tickets | More likely to increase overall performance, by inherently incentivizing both processing tickets individually and providing support that helps others resolve tickets |
Carry that logic into any scenario where a supervisor is deciding how to measure a team: when the work is interdependent, measure the unit, not only the individual.
What are the three fundamental components of a strategic thinking mindset?
What does AFH 1 say about the 'Attainable' criterion in SMART goal setting?
A supervisor manages a help desk where technicians must also train new teammates. Which goal structure does AFH 1 favor, and why?