Bond Pricing & Yields
Understanding bond pricing and yields is essential for evaluating fixed-income investments. This section covers the critical relationships that investment advisers must know.
The Fundamental Inverse Relationship
Bond prices and interest rates move in opposite directions.
| When Interest Rates... | Bond Prices... |
|---|---|
| Rise | Fall |
| Fall | Rise |
Why This Happens
When new bonds are issued at higher rates, existing bonds with lower coupon rates become less attractive. Their prices must fall until their yields are competitive.
Example:
- You own a bond paying 4% coupon
- New bonds issued at 5%
- Your 4% bond's price must fall until its effective yield rises to ~5%
Bond Price Relationships to Par
| Bond Price | Relationship | Why |
|---|---|---|
| At Par (100) | Coupon rate = Market rate | Fair value |
| Premium (>100) | Coupon rate > Market rate | Higher coupon is valuable |
| Discount (<100) | Coupon rate < Market rate | Lower coupon is less valuable |
Types of Yields
1. Nominal Yield (Coupon Rate)
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| Definition | Stated interest rate on the bond |
| Fixed? | Yes—never changes |
| Based On | Par value |
| Relevance | Annual interest payment |
Example: 5% coupon on $1,000 par = $50 annual interest (regardless of price)
2. Current Yield
Current Yield = Annual Interest Payment / Current Market Price
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| Based On | Current market price |
| Shows | Income return relative to price paid |
| Limitation | Ignores capital gains/losses |
Example: $50 annual interest / $950 price = 5.26% current yield
3. Yield to Maturity (YTM)
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| Definition | Total return if held to maturity |
| Includes | Coupon payments AND capital gain/loss |
| Most Important | Primary yield measure for bond analysis |
| Assumption | Coupons reinvested at YTM rate |
YTM accounts for everything: coupon income, time value, and any premium/discount amortization.
4. Yield to Call (YTC)
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| Definition | Return if bond called at first call date |
| When Used | Callable bonds trading at premium |
| Important Because | Premium bonds likely to be called |
Rule: For callable bonds at a premium, compare YTC to YTM—use the lower (yield to worst).
Yield Relationships by Bond Price
| Bond Price | Yield Relationships |
|---|---|
| Premium | Nominal Yield > Current Yield > YTM |
| Par | All yields are equal |
| Discount | Nominal Yield < Current Yield < YTM |
Memory Trick:
- For discount bonds: yields increase (N < CY < YTM) because you gain the discount
- For premium bonds: yields decrease (N > CY > YTM) because you lose the premium
Duration: Measuring Price Sensitivity
Duration measures a bond's sensitivity to interest rate changes.
What Duration Tells You
| Duration Value | Price Sensitivity |
|---|---|
| Higher duration | More price change for rate change |
| Lower duration | Less price change for rate change |
Rule of Thumb: A bond with duration of 7 years will change approximately 7% in price for each 1% change in interest rates.
Factors Affecting Duration
| Factor | Effect on Duration |
|---|---|
| Longer maturity | Higher duration |
| Lower coupon | Higher duration |
| Lower yield | Higher duration |
| Zero coupon | Duration = maturity (maximum) |
Duration Examples
| Duration | 1% Rate Rise | 1% Rate Fall |
|---|---|---|
| 3 years | ≈ -3% price | ≈ +3% price |
| 7 years | ≈ -7% price | ≈ +7% price |
| 15 years | ≈ -15% price | ≈ +15% price |
Convexity
Convexity measures the curvature of the price/yield relationship.
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| Duration Limitation | Assumes linear price change |
| Reality | Price changes are curved, not linear |
| Positive Convexity | Prices rise faster/fall slower than duration predicts |
| Negative Convexity | Prices rise slower/fall faster (callable bonds, MBS) |
Positive convexity is good for bondholders: You gain more when rates fall than you lose when rates rise.
Bond Pricing Conventions
Treasury Notes and Bonds (32nds)
| Quote | Calculation | Price per $1,000 |
|---|---|---|
| 99-16 | 99 + 16/32 = 99.5% | $995.00 |
| 101-08 | 101 + 8/32 = 101.25% | $1,012.50 |
| 98-24 | 98 + 24/32 = 98.75% | $987.50 |
In Practice: How Investment Advisers Apply This
Interest rate expectations:
- Expecting rates to rise? Shorten duration (less price decline)
- Expecting rates to fall? Extend duration (more price appreciation)
Client communication:
- YTM is the most comprehensive yield measure
- Duration quantifies interest rate risk
- Premium/discount affects realized return
Bond selection:
- Compare YTM across similar credits
- Consider YTC for callable premium bonds
- Match duration to client time horizon
On the Exam
The Series 65 exam tests your understanding of:
- Inverse relationship: Rates up = prices down
- Yield relationships: N vs. CY vs. YTM for premium/discount bonds
- Duration: Measures price sensitivity; rule of thumb
- Current yield formula: Annual interest / Price
- Premium vs. discount: Which yields are higher/lower
Expect 3-4 questions on bond pricing and yields. You need to know relationships but likely won't calculate complex YTM formulas.
Key Takeaways
- Bond prices move inversely to interest rates
- Premium bonds: N > CY > YTM (yields decrease left to right)
- Discount bonds: N < CY < YTM (yields increase left to right)
- At par: All yields are equal
- Duration measures price sensitivity to rate changes
- Duration of 7 ≈ 7% price change per 1% rate change
- Longer maturity and lower coupon = higher duration
- Zero-coupon bonds: Duration equals maturity
- Convexity measures the curvature beyond what duration captures
A bond with a 5% coupon trading at a discount will have:
If a bond has a duration of 7 years and interest rates rise by 1%, the bond's price will approximately:
Which bond would have the HIGHEST duration?
5.1 Common Stock
Chapter 5: Equity Securities