Duration

Duration is a measure of a bond's price sensitivity to interest rate changes, expressed in years. A higher duration means greater price volatility when interest rates change.

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Exam Tip

Modified duration estimates price sensitivity: a 1 percentage-point yield rise implies approximately duration percent price decline. Zero-coupon Macaulay duration equals maturity.

What is Duration?

Duration measures how sensitive a bond's price is to changes in interest rates. It represents the weighted average time until a bondholder receives all cash flows (interest and principal). Higher duration = more interest rate risk.

Types of Duration

TypeDescription
Macaulay DurationWeighted average time to receive cash flows
Modified DurationPrice sensitivity measure (most commonly used)
Effective DurationAccounts for embedded options (calls, puts)

Duration as Price Sensitivity

Approximate Percentage Price Change = -Modified Duration × Change in Yield

Express the yield change in percentage points for a percentage price result (or in decimals for a decimal price result). Macaulay duration measures weighted time and is not the same as modified duration.

Example:

  • Duration: 5 years
  • Interest rate increase: 1%
  • Price change: -5 × 1% = -5% decline

Duration vs. Maturity

FactorDurationMaturity
DefinitionWeighted average of cash flowsTime until principal repayment
Considers CouponsYesNo
Risk MeasureYesPartial

Factors Affecting Duration

FactorEffect on Duration
Longer MaturityIncreases duration
Lower CouponIncreases duration
Lower YieldIncreases duration
Zero CouponMacaulay duration = maturity; modified duration differs

Duration Examples

Bond TypeTypical Duration
Money MarketVery low (< 1 year)
Short-Term Bond1-3 years
Intermediate Bond4-6 years
Long-Term Bond7-12+ years
Zero Coupon (30-yr)Macaulay duration = 30 years

Duration and Portfolio Management

Interest Rate OutlookDuration Strategy
Rates RisingShorten duration (reduce sensitivity)
Rates FallingLengthen duration (increase sensitivity)
UncertainMatch duration to investment horizon

Duration Calculation (Simplified)

For a rough estimate:

  • Duration is typically lower than maturity
  • Zero coupon bond: Macaulay duration = maturity
  • Higher coupon = Lower duration (more early cash flows)

Limitations of Duration

LimitationExplanation
Linear EstimateOnly accurate for small rate changes
Assumes Parallel ShiftDoesn't account for yield curve twists
Ignores ConvexityConvexity measures the curve in price/yield relationship

Convexity

Convexity is the second-order measure that adjusts duration for the curvature in the price/yield relationship. Positive convexity benefits bondholders (price rises more than duration predicts when rates fall).

Exam Alert

Duration measures interest rate sensitivity. Higher duration = more price volatility. Zero coupon bonds have Macaulay duration equal to maturity. When rates rise 1%, bond price falls approximately by its duration percentage.

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