7.2 Think: Assessing Risk and Choosing a Solution
Key Takeaways
- The Think stage turns raw observation into a decision: judge how urgent and severe a hazard is, predict what other road users might do, and choose one response
- Predicting other road users' actions means reading cues — wheel angle, head movement, eye contact — rather than assuming they have seen you
- The four solution categories ICBC teaches are adjust speed, change position, increase space margins, and communicate
- Decision-making under time pressure favours a single committed action over hesitation; pick one solution and execute it fully
- Riders who assume they are invisible make better predictions than riders who assume drivers see them
What "Think" Really Means
Once you have seen a potential hazard, the Think stage converts that observation into a decision. The clock is already running: a vehicle pulling out of a side street gives you perhaps two or three seconds before a collision is unavoidable. Thinking, in this framework, is a structured habit, not a free-form deliberation. Three questions frame it:
- How urgent is it? — how much time and distance do I have before I must act?
- How severe could it be? — what is the worst plausible outcome?
- What is my solution? — what single action will most reduce the risk?
Assessing Risk: Urgency and Severity
Urgency and severity are separate dimensions. A pothole 30 metres ahead on a dry straight road is low-urgency and low-severity. The same pothole 10 metres ahead mid-corner in the rain is high-urgency and high-severity. Sorting hazards on both axes tells you how much attention to spend on each.
| Hazard | Urgency | Severity | Typical response |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parked car door opening | Medium | High | Move left, ease off throttle |
| Oncoming left-turner in intersection | High | Very high | Brake, cover horn, adjust lane position |
| Gravel patch mid-corner | Medium | Medium | Hold steady throttle, avoid sudden inputs |
| Pedestrian on phone at curb | Low-Medium | High | Cover brake, watch feet |
| Vehicle tailgating you | Low | High | Increase following distance ahead, create escape room |
The point of the table is not memorization — it is the habit of asking, for every hazard, "how soon?" and "how bad?" together. Riders who only judge severity freeze on the high-severity cases; riders who only judge urgency under-react to the slow-but-catastrophic ones.
Predicting Other Road Users' Actions
A prediction is a reasoned guess about what someone will do next, based on cues you can read now. The strongest cues are physical, not verbal:
- Front wheels turn before the car moves. A vehicle in a left-turn lane with wheels already angled is committed to the turn even if the signal is off.
- A driver's head and eyes tell you where they are looking. No eye contact with you usually means they have not seen you.
- Brake lights far ahead signal a slowdown before you feel it.
- A vehicle drifting within its lane is often a distracted driver — phone, radio, fatigue.
The single most useful assumption is also the most sobering: ride as if you are invisible. If a driver has not made eye contact with you, assume they have not seen you. This is not paranoia — it is the prediction that keeps your options open. The rider who assumes the oncoming car will yield, and is wrong, has no time left.
Choosing a Solution
ICBC groups the available responses into four categories. Most real maneuvers combine two or more, but it helps to name the dominant one:
1. Adjust Speed
The most common and powerful tool. Slowing down buys time, shortens stopping distance, and lowers the energy of any impact. Smoothness matters: firm, progressive brake pressure, not a grab. Ease off the throttle first so the brake application starts gently.
2. Change Position
Move within your lane — or to another lane — to open space around the hazard. A single lane is wide enough for several motorcycle tracks; use the left, centre, and right wheel tracks to trade space for visibility or to move away from a threat.
3. Increase Space Margins
If you cannot move away from a hazard, create more room ahead, behind, or to the side. Following a car too closely removes your forward buffer; slowing adds it back. Moving off-centre in the lane can open a side escape route.
4. Communicate
Use signals, the horn, eye contact, and lane position so other road users know you are there. Communication is a supporting action — it rarely solves the problem by itself, but it raises the odds that the other party will act predictably.
Decision-Making Under Time Pressure
When time is short, the biggest enemy is hesitation. A rider who brakes halfway, then steers halfway, ends up doing neither well enough. The discipline is to pick one solution and commit to it fully. If the chosen solution is wrong, committing early usually still leaves time to switch; splitting the difference rarely does. This is why the Think stage ends with a single answer to "what is my solution?" — not a ranked list.
Practising the See-Think-Do loop on ordinary rides — narrating hazards and the chosen solution in your head — builds the pattern so that, under real pressure, the decision comes as a reflex.
When assessing a hazard in the Think stage, which two questions should a rider answer together rather than separately?
A driver in an oncoming left-turn lane has not made eye contact with you. Which assumption does ICBC's "ride as if you are invisible" principle say to adopt?
Under time pressure, a rider is choosing between braking hard and steering around a hazard. What does the Think stage recommend?