The AACE Decision and Risk Management Professional (DRMP) certification is BEST characterized as:
Aace Certifications
Question · Easy
Monte Carlo simulation in cost risk analysis:
Risk Management
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) for a discrete risk with probability p and impact I is:
Trades Exam Prep Podcast
Listen on Spotify
Podcast
Consider a decision tree with two options. Option A: invest $100k now; 70% probability the project succeeds yielding $300k revenue, 30% it fails yielding $0. Option B: do nothing, $0 cost, $0 revenue. The EMV of Option A is:
Decision Risk Practices
Question · Medium
The Value of Perfect Information (VPI) for a decision is BEST defined as:
Question · Hard
Three-point estimating for an activity using the Beta-PERT distribution gives expected duration:
Basic Cost Engineering Statistics
A triangular distribution differs from a Beta-PERT distribution in that the triangular:
The lognormal distribution is BEST applied to:
If a Monte Carlo simulation produces a project cost distribution with mean $100M, median $95M, and 80th percentile $115M, the contingency required to achieve P80 confidence (above the deterministic estimate of $90M) is approximately:
Correlation between Monte Carlo inputs that is ignored when it should be modeled typically:
AACE Recommended Practice 57R-09 'Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis' emphasizes:
A 'criticality index' from a schedule Monte Carlo simulation is:
Real Options analysis in capital project decisions captures:
A Tornado Diagram in sensitivity analysis ranks inputs by:
A risk register typically has at minimum:
Risk response strategies for THREATS (negative risks) are:
Risk response strategies for OPPORTUNITIES (positive risks) are:
Cost contingency reserve and management reserve differ in that contingency reserve:
AACE Recommended Practice 40R-08 'Contingency Estimating - General Principles' guides:
AACE 41R-08 'Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Range Estimating' describes:
Decision tree analysis differs from Monte Carlo simulation in that decision trees:
An influence diagram differs from a decision tree in that an influence diagram:
A utility function differs from a money value in that utility:
Certainty Equivalent (CE) of a risky outcome is:
Sensitivity Analysis OUTPUT (post-Monte Carlo) typically identifies:
AACE Recommended Practice 65R-11 'Schedule Risk Analysis Using Risk Drivers' uses:
ISO 31000:2018 (Risk Management - Guidelines) emphasizes:
The Probability-Impact (P-I) matrix is used in qualitative risk analysis to:
An Owner's risk policy may set contingency at P80 (Monte Carlo) for capital approval. This means:
Bayesian updating in decision analysis is used to:
A 'risk-adjusted discount rate' approach to evaluating a risky project:
Portfolio risk management considers risk:
Black Swan events in risk analysis are:
If a risk's probability is 0.30 and its cost impact is -$200,000 (threat), its EMV is:
The 'Reference Class Forecasting' (Flyvbjerg) method addresses systematic optimism bias by:
The Risk Management Plan typically defines:
Value at Risk (VaR) at the 95% confidence level represents:
An EMV-maximizing decision could be wrong from a corporate perspective when:
A decision-maker should pay for additional information IF:
Cost contingency calculated parametrically (e.g., AACE 42R-08 'parametric range estimating') uses:
When defining a risk in the risk register, the recommended formulation is:
Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) parallels:
A 'risk threshold' (or risk appetite statement) defines:
Sensitivity Analysis BEFORE Monte Carlo (pre-simulation) typically uses:
The 'Hillson Risk Doctor' approach to risk identification emphasizes:
Combined Cost-Schedule Monte Carlo simulation produces:
AACE Recommended Practice 113R-20 'Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis - Hybrid Parametric and Expected Value Method' describes:
Loading more…