Predictive Lifecycle

The predictive lifecycle, also known as the waterfall or traditional approach, is a plan-driven methodology where the project scope, schedule, and cost are determined early in the project and changes are carefully controlled. This approach has been the foundation of project management for decades and remains essential knowledge for PMP certification.

Understanding the Predictive Approach

In a predictive lifecycle, the project progresses through a series of sequential phases, with each phase building upon the deliverables of the previous one. The key characteristic is that significant planning occurs upfront, and the project team follows a detailed plan throughout execution.

Key Characteristics of Predictive Projects

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The Five Process Groups

PMI organizes project management into five process groups that represent the logical progression of project activities. While not strictly phases, these groups provide a framework for understanding how work flows in predictive projects.

Process Group Distribution

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Initiating Process Group

The Initiating process group establishes the foundation for the project:

Key Activities

• Develop Project Charter — The formal document that authorizes the project and gives the project manager authority
• Identify Stakeholders — Determine who has interest in or influence over the project
• Define High-Level Scope — Establish what the project will and will not include
• Assign Project Manager — Officially designate the person responsible for project success

Outputs

• Project Charter
• Stakeholder Register
• Assumption Log

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Planning Process Group

The Planning process group involves the most intensive work in predictive projects:

Key Planning Activities

The Project Management Plan

All subsidiary plans combine to form the comprehensive Project Management Plan, which serves as the roadmap for project execution.

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Executing Process Group

The Executing process group is where the actual work gets done:

Key Activities

• Direct and Manage Project Work — Perform activities defined in the project management plan
• Manage Quality — Execute quality assurance activities
• Acquire and Develop Team — Obtain and train project team members
• Manage Communications — Distribute project information to stakeholders
• Implement Risk Responses — Execute planned risk response actions
• Conduct Procurements — Obtain seller responses and award contracts

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Monitoring & Controlling Process Group

This process group runs throughout the project to track performance and manage changes:

Key Activities

• Monitor and Control Project Work — Track overall project performance
• Perform Integrated Change Control — Review and approve/reject change requests
• Validate Scope — Obtain formal acceptance of completed deliverables
• Control Scope, Schedule, Cost — Compare actual performance to baselines
• Monitor Risks — Track identified risks and identify new ones
• Control Procurements — Manage vendor relationships and contracts

Performance Reporting

Regular status reports compare actual progress against the performance measurement baseline (scope, schedule, cost baselines combined).

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Closing Process Group

The Closing process group formally completes the project or phase:

Key Activities

• Close Project or Phase — Finalize all activities across all process groups
• Obtain Final Acceptance — Get formal sign-off from the customer/sponsor
• Document Lessons Learned — Capture what worked and what could be improved
• Release Resources — Return team members to functional departments
• Archive Project Documents — Store documents for future reference
• Close Procurements — Complete and settle vendor contracts

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Phase Gates and Stage Gates

Phase gates (also called stage gates or kill points) are formal review checkpoints at the end of each phase:

Purpose of Phase Gates

• Go/No-Go Decision — Determine whether to proceed, modify, or terminate the project
• Quality Check — Verify that phase deliverables meet quality standards
• Resource Allocation — Approve resources for the next phase
• Alignment Check — Ensure project still aligns with business objectives

Phase Gate Review Criteria

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When to Use Predictive Approaches

Predictive methodologies are best suited for projects with specific characteristics:

Ideal Conditions for Predictive

When to Consider Other Approaches

Predictive may not be ideal when:

• Requirements are unclear or evolving
• Customer feedback is needed throughout development
• Time-to-market is critical
• The team needs flexibility to adapt

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Predictive vs. Adaptive Approaches

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Key Takeaways

• The predictive lifecycle follows a sequential, plan-driven approach
• Five process groups organize project work: Initiating, Planning, Executing, Monitoring & Controlling, and Closing
• Phase gates provide formal checkpoints for go/no-go decisions
• Predictive works best when requirements are stable and well-understood
• The project management plan integrates all subsidiary plans into a comprehensive roadmap
• Approximately 40% of PMP exam content covers predictive approaches